Long before satellites orbited Earth and meteorologists delivered weather updates digitally, society relied on almanacs to know when to plant and harvest food for their families.
Today, farmers, ranchers and enthusiasts still look to the Old Farmer’s Almanac as a guide for seasonal weather outlooks.
Predictions for Winter
Zone 11, which includes Texas and Oklahoma, should expect a drier, warmer winter with occasional cold snaps. The Old Farmer’s Almanac predicts:
- Above-normal temperatures
- Below-normal precipitation
- Below-normal snowfall
- Coldest periods in mid-December, early and late January, and early February
How Predictions Are Made
The almanac uses the same methodology to predict weather as it did when it was established in 1792, although now with modern technology.
According to almanac.com, the publisher employs three scientific disciplines:
- Solar science, including the study of magnetic storms on the sun’s surface and other solar activity
- Climatology, the study of prevailing weather patterns
- Meteorology, the study of the atmosphere
In addition, the publication compares decades of data to establish patterns across seasons. This year’s winter predictions are based off statistics gathered from 1991 to 2020.
Is the Almanac Accurate?
The Old Farmer’s Almanac claims its long-range weather forecasts are 80% accurate. However, a 1981 University of Illinois study found the prediction accuracy was only 52% accurate—comparable to the flip of a coin.
Despite its grounding in long-term data collection and comparison, some argue the almanac keeps its forecasts vague to increase probability. Others believe confirmation bias plays into the publication’s success; people tend to remember the times predictions were correct over the times they weren’t.
Regardless, the Old Farmer’s Almanac garners an enthusiastic following, selling more than 2.5 million copies annually.
